作者：Xiaodong Cui et al.
题目：Health transition probability and Long-term care cost estimation
期刊：Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2022,4
摘要：The cost of long-term care (LTC) is one of the huge financial risks faced by the elderly, and also is the signifificant challenge on social security system. This paper establishes a piecewise constant Markov model to estimate the dynamic health transition probability and based on actuarial theory to caculate the long-term care cost, in contrast to the static or non-transferable state hypotheses in traditional models. Using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, this paper found that the average cost of LTC for the elderly varies greatly due to genders and health conditions, the cost for women may increase by up to 75% compared to men’s, and the cost for unhealthy elderly may more than double compared to healthy elderly’s; and furthermore, if LTC is included in the medical insurance system, in theory, women's average pay price will be more than twice that of men.